Washington seems to be working against Russia repeating the
“Syria scenario” in Venezuela. In August 2015, Moscow deployed a small fighting
force to Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad, upending the balance of
forces, creating new leverage for Russia and limiting American room to
maneuver. Were something similar to materialize in Venezuela, U.S. plans to
peacefully unseat Maduro by providing international recognition and legitimacy
to Guaido could quickly unravel while drastically raising the costs of U.S.-led
military intervention in support of the opposition. Washington’s fear is
probably misplaced. Although top Russian military leaders have talked about using Syria as a template for “limited
military operations abroad” in support of Russian interests, Venezuela’s
ill-suited for such operations due to its distance from Russia and proximity to
the U.S. Nor are there clear military objectives in Venezuela apart from
deterring outside military intervention. More…
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