Venezuela’s opposition coalition and its
allies in the U.S. appear to have thought that global rejection of Maduro’s
re-election and Guaidó’s assuming the interim presidency – coupled with threats
of a U.S. military invasion and sanctions on Venezuelan oil – would lead
Venezuela’s armed forces to turn against Maduro. That would then usher in a
democratic transition. Recent events have shown that this strategy was
simplistic. More than 500 Venezuelan soldiers have defected to Colombia and
Brazil. But most have stayed loyal, as have the generals who hold high positions
in Maduro’s government. And Maduro has shown himself quite adept at using
dispersed violence to discourage dissent. More…
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