Desperate Venezuela 4: Oil Market Impact Of Unrest

Low oil prices would seem to suggest that there is nothing to worry about from potential political unrest in Venezuela. I think it’s more that the situation in Venezuela’s problems remain over the horizon for many oil traders, until the level of unrest increases to the point where oil production and exports appear to be threatened. The economic and social situation has become horrendous, but since there have been no terrorist attacks (or Kardashian visits, kind of the same thing), it hasn’t gone the media coverage it deserves. Like Chekhov’s unhappy families, every oil crisis is different and the market balance alone isn’t enough to inform us as to how prices will move in the event of a supply disruption. But it is the place to start. More…