Recent polls suggest the opposition could
win a decisive victory if elections were held today. An analysis by Bank of
America researchers in April projected the coalition could take two-thirds of
the seats in the National Assembly if it maintains its current lead in the
polls. That would give the opposition the supermajority it needs to go after
its biggest agenda item -- to push through a recall referendum of President
Maduro. A simple majority would still allow it to wrest control of the National
Assembly and challenge the president from a position of power. But the election
is still a long way off, and it’s difficult to predict any outcomes in
Venezuela’s highly polarized political climate. The opposition also faces an
uphill battle, given the government has more campaigning resources and media
access. The election also depends heavily on how the vote plays out in
individual districts, so even if the opposition has more than 50 percent of
national support, it wouldn’t necessarily translate into an electoral victory.
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