Could Venezuela be Headed for Reform or Revolt?

The difficulty for Maduro is that the economic decision-making of the Bolivarian Revolution has been based in policy and for short term electoral gain. Any macro-economic restructuring would come at a significant social cost and would likely further alienate Maduro’s core supporters who have benefitted from social programmes funded by oil revenues. With legislative elections scheduled later in 2015 it is unlikely that Maduro will implement drastic economic reforms and veer from Chavez’s time-honored tradition of winning over support with massive subsidies and government spending. The high social costs of adjusting macro-imbalances combined with legislative elections later in 2015 will make meaningful economic reform both difficult and unlikely. More…