Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Yes, Venezuela could collapse if oil keeps dropping

There are several reasons that make Venezuela acutely vulnerable to a drop in oil prices: 1) The extremely inefficient public sector paid for by high oil prices. 2) the domestic subsidies, from cheap gasoline to giving Cuba cheap oil.  These subsidies have bought votes for the Chavez-Maduro regimes.  My guess is that these subsidies would have to be curtailed substantially if oil prices keeps dropping. 3) Maduro is in a very weak political position.  He is not Chavez, a more popular figure who got to govern at a time when oil prices could finance every scheme and ambitious project. There is a perfect storm brewing in Venezuela, and the leadership looks totally unprepared for it. More: 


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