Venezuela Default Expected Next Year as Oil Tumbles, SocGen Says

Venezuela will probably default next year and possibly in the first quarter as the price of crude oil tumbles, according to Societe Generale SA. “The move in oil reinforces my view that Venezuela is likely to default, with some probability in the first quarter and with a very high probability in the last quarter of next year,” Regis Chatellier, a credit strategist at Societe Generale in London, said today by phone from London. He changed his recommendation on Venezuelan bonds to underweight Sept. 11. Venezuelan bonds are the worst-performing in emerging markets, losing 30 percent in the month through yesterday. More…