Chinese and Russian state-owned oil companies “will probably
market a significant share of PDVSA’s exports and operate an increasing share
of its production, guaranteeing the repayment of their loans,” according to
March report from the Atlantic Council. In other words, Venezuela will have to
more or less hand over its oil to Chinese and Russian companies if it wants to
sell any oil on the international market at all. Unfortunately, there are few
good options. The U.S. is reportedly considering sanctions, although it is
unclear when or what form those might take. While there is an urge to do
something, sanctions would likely only deepen the misery in Venezuela, with
uncertain odds of affecting change. Moreover, what is clear is that U.S.
sanctions could knock even more oil production offline, significantly raising
the odds of default, and potentially opening up Venezuela to more control by
China. More…
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