Traders reduced their bets on a default of Venezuela’s
dollar debt over the next year amid a thin repayment schedule in the first
quarter. The implied probability of nonpayment over the next 12 months plunged
to 44 percent in January from 59 percent at the end of December, according to
credit-default swaps data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the first time the risk
of default has been below 50 percent since September. The longer-term outlook
is still a little murky, with the odds of a credit event over the next five
years at 89 percent. More…
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