Friday, September 4, 2015

Venezuela Default Risk: Overstated In Election Year?


Despite a slump in oil revenue on which Venezuela depends, the indebted country has the resources and willingness to meet its debt obligations without defaulting this year, says Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Analyst Francisco Rodriguez. Writing from Caracas, where he’s been meeting with policymakers, politicos, private-sector players and local economic analysts, Rodriguez says the market has been overestimating the chances of a Venezuela default and underestimating the chances of a political transition in 2016 following elections in December. He sides with the bulls, who point to the magnitude of the country’s assets and its access to non-conventional sources of debt financing (China just made another loan to Venezuela.) Rodriguez writes: More…

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